Conclusion

This research, set against the backdrop of Cambodia’s highly dollarized economy, has unraveled the intricate layers of central bank policy uncertainty. Confronted with a developing financial market, traditional monetary policy tools encounter unique challenges. Our innovative approach, employing dual Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) models, has provided a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the multifaceted nature of policy uncertainty and its evolution over time.

The dual-model framework, pivotal in our research, adeptly captures not only the overall magnitude of policy uncertainty but also its distribution across various policy realms. We concentrated on key policy areas like Exchange Rate Policy, Currency Stabilization, and De-dollarization, shedding light on the complex factors fueling uncertainty in Cambodia’s monetary policy landscape. This comprehensive view offers a deeper understanding of the challenges and dynamics within Cambodia’s unique economic setting.

Our application of narrative and comparative evaluation methods reinforces the reliability of the findings. By aligning topic-based measures with manual analysis of articles and established uncertainty indices, we have demonstrated the robustness and adaptability of our methodology, affirming its potential applicability in diverse economic contexts.

While our approach marks a significant advancement in quantifying policy uncertainty, we recognize its complexities and inherent limitations. The assumption regarding the correlation between the relative weight of uncertainty-related topics and the intensity of uncertainty, though meticulously validated, may require adaptation in different economic settings. Our commitment to methodological rigor is further evidenced by the sensitivity analysis performed, ensuring the robustness of our findings.

The insights garnered from this study extend beyond academic circles, offering practical implications for policymakers, economists, and financial analysts. The detailed understanding of the specific sources and trajectories of policy uncertainty can guide risk assessment, inform policy decisions, and shape strategic planning. Moreover, the flexibility and extensibility of our methodology present a valuable framework for similar analyses in other economic environments.

This research has successfully navigated the complexities of central bank policy uncertainty in Cambodia, delivering a methodologically sound and contextually comprehensive analysis. It epitomizes the synergy of quantitative topic modeling with qualitative content analysis, bridging data-driven insights with a deeper understanding of economic phenomena. As we look to the future, opportunities abound to expand this research paradigm. Exploring correlations with external economic indicators, integrating sentiment analysis, and delving into predictive modeling are just some avenues that can further enrich our understanding and application in the realm of policy uncertainty.

In essence, this research not only illuminates the landscape of policy uncertainty in Cambodia but also stands as a testament to the evolving capabilities and potential of economic research methodologies in capturing the essence of complex economic phenomena.